03.05.2023 11:26
Insider time: Wall Street looks forward to fresh volatility
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Insider time: Wall Street looks forward to fresh volatility US markets ended April aggressively, with investors nervous about high-interest rates, runaway inflation and the threat of a recession. Recall the events that will actively influence the dollar and the euro in the next three weeks.The weak market season begins from May to October when stock assets lag behind the dynamics of currencies and basic raw materials. Traders call this seasonal problem Sell in May and go away.Whether such a strategy will be relevant this year will be shown by the market reaction to the following events: Wednesday, May 3: Fed meeting, Powell speechFed is ready to carry out another (tenth already!) correction of interest rates. Investors estimate the likelihood of an increase of 25 pp. at 89.5% and 10.5% chances are left to the option of keeping the bet. Thursday, 4 May: ECB meeting, Lagarde speechEurope intends to raise the rate by 0.25%, and ECB insiders rarely deceive. It is important to have a clear understanding of the rate outlook at the upcoming meetings: Lagarde's rhetoric will affect the euro if Lady Christine says that the decision to raise the rate in June has not been made. Friday, May 5: Non-farm payrollsBy the time of publication, the markets will have all the necessary information: the Fed's decision, ISM and ADR reports, and BigTech blue chip reports. If the Fed announces the end of the rate hike cycle, and the reports are better than the forecast, then a strong NFP will support risk appetite. Wednesday, May 10: US CPI data.This report is closely watched by Fed officials: analysts expect data above 5.0% on an annualized basis, hoping that the active fight against inflation will continue. US debt ceiling problemUS Treasury is running out of money to pay bills, and if Congress does not urgently decide to raise the critical amount to $31.4 trillion, then the US will default in the first week of June.So we follow the market carefully and do not risk in vain. Profits to yall!#ForexChief #ECBmeeting #Powell #market #forexnews #stocks #worldnews #Lagarde #WallStreet #StockMarket #Fed
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