Fights, strikes, oil: three black swans this fall

Fights, strikes, oil: three black swans this fallThe only constant factor in the modern market is stress. The Fed again has to make decisions under extreme conditions. Let us recall three current factors that negatively affect both the American and global economies. Another shutdownConservatives in the House of Representatives want to cut government spending by about $120 billion for 2024. Democrats in the Senate, who have a majority there, strongly disagree. If the Donkeys do not reach an agreement with the Elephants, the government will shut down as early as October 1, although this will reduce economic growth by about 0.15% each week. Let me remind you: today is September 20th, and the discussion has practically stopped. Trade union protestUnfortunately, the fight for workers' rights is disrupting price stability and threatening corporate profits. Major business interruptions in the US have already led to 4 million missed work days in August - the highest figure since the beginning of the 21st century. In addition to the UAW strikes, the situation was also affected by the SAG-AFTRA strikes. And even if companies agree to the strikers terms, neither the Fed nor business will feel any better. The process has just begun and goals are still being adjusted. Rising oil pricesOil is again above $90 per barrel: Saudi Arabia and OPEC are effectively maintaining high demand and provoking the market. High energy prices not only create the threat of a second wave of inflation but also hit companies' profits, increasing their costs. The Biden administration has been unable to restore the SPR stocks it used at the start of the military conflict in Ukraine, and it has no new factors influencing the market. The Fed's campaign to control retail prices is again under threat.The market has already made its bets - we are waiting for the Federal Reserves decision. One can only sympathize with poor fellow Powell at the press conference.Profits to yall!#ForexChief #opec #fed #forexnews #stocks #worldnews #Market #fed #Powell