Schedule surprises: what to expect from Jackson Hole

Schedule surprises: what to expect from Jackson HoleTreasury bond yields hit a 10-year high as investors are frightened by the situation in the debt market, and demand for options to hedge risks is growing. In such a situation, any surprises from Powell could be misinterpreted.The American market is slowly but surely sinking into the power of the bears. After downgrading the US credit rating (a gift from Fitch) and ten American banks (a gift from Moody's), investors suddenly realized that uncontrolled rate hikes would not go unnoticed.The Fed is nervous about the re-acceleration of inflation driven by strong aggregate demand, but any ideas could be corrected by statistics such as PCE inflation or the August NFP.There is another factor that the Jackson Hole party will have to discuss: the likelihood of a shutdown in September. Previous US government shutdowns have occurred for two reasons: either disagreement over the level or distribution of spending, or a dispute over other issues that one side wants to resolve by adjusting spending laws. At the moment, both types of risk are present: even a short-term shutdown can lead to a decrease in US GDP growth by 0.15-0.20%.Lagarde is also scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole - her comments will be scrutinized for clues about the ECB's next move in September.Investors are expecting Powell's hawkish tone because they recognize the reality of additional rate hikes. It is necessary to understand whether the head of the Fed believes that further tightening of policy will be required to reduce inflation, or whether sufficient progress has been made and rates can be maintained for now. In such a situation, big capital demonstrates a risk appetite.However, the Fed is still too early to make serious decisions, so the dollar is likely to hold its ground. So we listen carefully and do not risk in vain.Profits to yall!#ForexChief #ecb #fed #forexnews #stocks #worldnews #Market #Powell