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26.09.2023 14:00

Japan kept its bets: we are waiting for intervention



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Japan kept its bets: we are waiting for interventionBOJ chief Ueda denied his statement about rate adjustments early next year. Now the fall of the yen is frightening the markets with the intervention of the monetary regulator. Trading partners are of course unhappy, especially exporters who like the cheap yen too much. But Japan knows well the dangers of a weak currency.We are interested in three questions: price levelThe Japanese-American intervention in 1998 occurred after the yen reached the 146.70-147.20 price zone. In October 2022, speculators tried to break through the 151.50152.00 zone, but then the BOJ (unofficially!) added to the market 5.6 trillion ($37.8 billion) to stabilize the currency. Now the pair USD/JPY has been hanging around in the critical zone of 148.00 for almost a month  its time to make a decision. intervention signalLast year, the intervention took place outside Japan's normal trading hours in three stages: September 22, October 21 and November 10. Shortly before the first round, the BOJ carried out price control  it clarified with large traders the price of dark pools for the yen against the dollar. Now such reconciliation of positions has already been completed. where does the money come from?The country's foreign exchange reserves are spent on such a purchase of the yen. At the end of August, Japan's reserves reached $1.25 trillion. This is more than during the 1998 intervention and more than twice the daily turnover of the Tokyo foreign exchange market. In September 2022, the BOJ spent more than $200 billion to save the yen; now such a deal will cost more. However, such a step without US support is unlikely: the G20 and G7 groups have relevant regulations on this issue. But now Yellen has given her blessing to this situation and given Japan freedom of action.In any case, those holding positions in the yen  on both sides of the market  need to be extremely careful.Profits to yall!#ForexChief #market #forexnews #stocks #worldnews #profit #StockMarket #boj #usdjpy #G20 #intervention

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