25.08.2023 16:24
Oil without optimism: Iranian factor dominates
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Oil without optimism: Iranian factor dominatesOil is declining amid increased supply and weak demand. OPEC+ countries are sticking to plans to cut. Iraq and Trkiye are discussing the restoration of the pipeline, which could increase global supplies. Iranian exports rose to 2.2 mln b/d, but a weak China and a nervous US remain the main market problems.Prices rose against the backdrop of an artificial shortage of supply (thanks to Saudi Arabia and Russia), as well as due to high seasonal demand in the US and Latin America. But the summer season ends on September 1st.At the same time, China does not live up to hopes for economic recovery and demand growth. Beijing is still using excess oil reserves accumulated through purchases of Russian raw materials at a huge discount and does not participate in large purchases.U.S. behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts have backfired: sanctions pressure on Tehran is easing. Iran has already increased oil production by about 50% over the past two years. The country expects to reach the level of 3.4 mln barrels per day by the end of this month and approach the maximum capacity of 3.8 mln barrels in October.This situation is absolutely uncomfortable for American oil.Biden is planning a feature conversation with Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi. A meeting between the two leaders could create a breakthrough in talks on a mega-deal that could include U.S. security guarantees for Riyadh, as well as an agreement to normalize the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The main condition of such a deal should be an increase in oil production by Saudi Arabia and its satellites. Alas, the Saudis are only listening, but do not promise anything.From the point of view of the market balance, there are no prerequisites for fixing below $80-82 for Brent and the $78 zone for WTI. Opening corrective purchases is not yet recommended, and in open sales, it is worth pulling StopLoss closer.Profits to yall!#ForexChief #opec #brent #Market #forexnews #blockchain #worldnews #wti
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