03.08.2023 13:10
The US is losing its rating: black swan or false story?
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The US is losing its rating: black swan or false story?Fitch downgraded the US long-term rating from AAA to AA+, which means a slight increase in the risk of default. Fitch explains the decision by the fact that the US government debt is growing, the Fed is tightening its policy, and there is also a recession trend. The White House, of course, disagreed with the agency's conclusions, but what does this mean for the market?In August, not only large investors are on vacation, but also government members and central bankers so important financial decisions are made extremely rarely. But history has shown that it was in August that black swan situations occurred, such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.Bloomberg notes that the US has been rated AAA by Fitch since at least 1994. Another rating agency, Moody's, continues to rate the US at AAA, but S&P downgraded it to AA+ back in 2011 after the debt ceiling crisis.Many investment funds, primarily pension funds, have low-risk assets in their portfolios and are traditionally considered to be AAA-rated US treasury bills. Now, after the overnight downgrade of the US rating, funds will be forced to restructure their portfolios, but there is a problem there are very few assets with such a rating on the market.German assets will be popular in the first place, which means the conversion of large capital into the European currency we are waiting for the growth of the euro. The dollar should fall since no one needs it when the US stock and debt market falls, and gold should rise. But so far only speculators are worried.In general, at first, we are waiting for chaos, then they will try to flood it with money, which will lead to even more chaos, so we are in for a very interesting market.It's funny that despite the downgrade, Fitch's forecast for the further development of the US is stable. So why kick up a dust? Profits to yall!#ForexChief #SP500 #stocks #Market #forexnews #blockchain #worldnews #BlackSwan
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