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20.07.2022 10:34

Italian scenery for the ECB



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Italian scenery for the ECB ECB promises to raise interest rates tomorrow by 25 bp, but still, the European regulator looks uncertain and too cautious. The real economic situation calls for a 50 bp increase at once to contain inflationary growth, but the probability of such a decision is low. So the main intrigue of the upcoming meeting is the future dynamics of monetary tightening.According to Bloomberg, tomorrow ECB will present an unlimited bond buying tool that will help markets adjust to a sharp increase in interest rates. This may cause a short-term rise in the euro, but this is not enough for a confident positive.Situation in Italy remains critical. The non-partisan Draghi, the former head of ECB and the current prime minister, still intends to resign due to problems in the ruling coalition. Recall that Mario promised to cooperate with all parties in Italy and not get involved in political confrontations. However, on July 14, the Five Star Movement refused to participate in the vote on the issue of helping inflation-suffering citizens and companies (23 billion), and there are no serious objections, the conflict is only in the details. And Draghi sees no other way to solve the problem.Italian President Mattarella did not accept the resignation, and the mayors of 110 cities in Italy, the heads of trade unions and business associations appealed to the prime minister to reconsider his decision.Alas, the analysis of opinions shows an increase in voter support for right-wing parties. These political forces benefit from a change of government and holding early elections. The vote in Parliament is scheduled for today, but changes are possible.After the news of Draghi's resignation, the yield of Italian 10-year bonds has already increased by 5%. Further escalation of the crisis will actively put pressure on the euro, and ECB will have to respond urgently. But the regulator does not yet have such an effective plan.Profits to yall!

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