13.07.2022 15:22
Why is the euro sinking and how to live in the equilibrium zone?
เรียนลูกค้าและพันธมิตรที่เคารพ!
Why is the euro sinking and how to live in the equilibrium zone? Negative of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the slowness of ECB to raise interest rates for the first time since 2002 dropped the European currency to parity with the dollar. Investors are actively dumping the euro: this is not a disaster yet, but already a panic.Europe is suffering the most from a military conflict that has triggered an energy crisis and threatens the region with a long and deep recession. In a situation where inflation in the eurozone is at a historical maximum, a weak currency contributes to higher prices due to the rise in the cost of imports. Look at consumer prices: in June they rose by 8.6% compared to last year. And judging by the forecasts, such dynamics will continue at least until the end of the year.The 1:1 level is a strong psychological barrier to the market. FX traders are anticipating strong turbulence and the accumulated billions of options in the 1.050-0.9850 zone support this idea. Euro could well fall to $0.90 if Russia exacerbates the crisis by cutting off gas supplies to Europe.Don't bet against the eurozone advises former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet. Remember this figure? He was the last head of the ECB, under which rates were raised in Europe. Draghi and Lagarde did not dare to take such risks.ECB is much more difficult to act than other central banks: even the hint that politicians are planning to tighten policy leads to poorly controlled panic. Thus, the result of urgent measures to rescue the situation in Italy, where the yield on 10-year bonds rose above 4% for the first time since 2014, is unlikely to be clear until the next meeting of ECB.However, markets are expecting the initial rate hike on July 21 to start a series of further moves towards tightening monetary policy. At the same time, officials are preparing a new tool to keep government bond markets from panic as borrowing costs rise.What will really come of it we will see in a week. And with the euro, you have to be very careful.Profits to yall!
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