Should we expect a rally in the euro?

Should we expect a rally in the euro? Tomorrow is the next meeting of ECB: the market is waiting for clear signals from the European regulator to tighten policy. These expectations have a complex causal structure, so the euro is likely not to receive the support that traders are now counting on.Analysts are waiting for an interest rate correction in July  such a move is unlikely tomorrow, if only because the APP program should be fully completed only by the beginning of the third quarter. Therefore, the most important event will not be the result of the ECB meeting, but the speech of Christine Lagarde.Most ECB officials underestimate the inflation factor. Recall that this region is a net importer of energy. The eurozone economy is already running a critical current account deficit in the face of soaring commodity prices. Meanwhile, the April jump in inflation in the euro area increases the chances of an ECB rate hike by 50 bp until the end of the year.A negative factor for the growth of the euro is the asynchronous yield of debt obligations of various countries of the bloc. For example, Italian government bond yields are growing much faster than German bonds, which is a sign of economic "stress".Head of ECB, who previously confidently stated that the rate would not be raised at all, is now watching with horror the rise in inflation, as well as active criticism of the regulator. So she is simply forced to tighten her rhetoric to at least keep the euro from falling. Judging by the previous comments by lady ECB, the regulator is ready for a 25 bp increase in July and September, but to give the euro a strong positive momentum now, stronger factors are needed.Profits to yall!