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14.07.2022 13:57

How Johnson's resignation will help the pound



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How Johnson's resignation will help the pound British financial assets always react badly to political upheavals  investors quickly lose confidence in the royal currency. A change in the prime minister may solve reputational problems, but one should not expect quick positive steps in the economy. Although whoever the new leader is, the pound still has a chance to avoid collapse.Brexit has undermined long-term export opportunities; Britain is still unable to provide a prudent industrial policy that could protect the country from supply chain disruptions. Johnson made matters worse by threatening to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol and jeopardize the trade deal with the EU. Rising energy prices further hit retail sales and consumer confidence and brought the British economy to the brink of recession.The struggle for the post of leader of the Conservative Party remains unpredictable. But the most likely shortlisted candidates, such as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss or Trade Policy Minister Penny Mordaunt, are strong Brexit supporters and not prone to confrontation with Brussels.The new prime minister may move to a looser fiscal policy, which will push the BOE to further raise interest rates, and this is a strong signal for the growth of the pound.But these positive factors will be relevant no earlier than autumn. Now the pound is trading near the lowest level since the start of Brexit, British stocks are also showing too weak dynamics. Until the country decides on a successor to Johnson, the pound will steadily fall, at least to a strong protection zone of 1.14501.1350, from where large options will help it turn up. However, it will be much more difficult to get out of the 1.10 zone  let's hope that politicians will not allow such a failure.Profits to yall!

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