Panic optimism: what to expect in the commodity market

Panic optimism: what to expect in the commodity market The fourth quarter opened with strong growth. How investors assess demand, the consequences of the energy crisis in Europe and the impact of sanctions on supplies from Russia  we are waiting for fresh forecasts to set goals for next year.The current oil market breaks stereotypes and is difficult to analyse by conventional methods: the monthly reports of OPEC and the IEA should shed some light on the situation. A serious problem for assessing demand is the dynamics of global economic growth against the backdrop of the tightening monetary policy.In December, the EU embargo on supplies from Russia will come into force, so the market will be looking for any information about how serious the consequences will be. So far, only Goldman Sachs Group Inc. can boast of the only positive forecasts. and Morgan Stanley - expect prices above $100 before the end of this year.Tomorrow, the US Department of Agriculture will publish the latest data on grain crops: the effects of the drought still cannot be adequately assessed. Lower water levels in the Mississippi have pushed up the cost of barge freight, pushing up the price of US corn even more.China is preparing for the Congress of the Communist Party. This week, some data will be published on the state of Asia's largest economy, as well as an analysis of the costs associated with Covid quarantine and problems in the real estate market.Also of interest is the critical WASDE report on global demand for agricultural products and the IMF forecast for the worldwide economy. The minutes of the September meeting of the Fed, as well as data on inflation in the US, detail the current policy of interest rates, which may affect the price of gold.In general, the data flow on the commodity market is too dense, their impact on specific dynamics is complex, and the risk for new transactions is too high. We recommend that you carefully analyse the situation, but at the same time stay out of the market.Profits to yall!